Germany's 37% EV share is a subsidy story, not a Chinese takeover

Is the German car buyer still loyal to German cars? October's registration data suggests loyalty now comes with an expiry date, and the buyer is checking the price tag first.

Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) published its October figures on November 4. Of 254,492 new cars, 37.0% were pure battery-electric, up from 21.0% a year earlier, according to drweb.de. That is 94,086 cars, 79.5% more than in October 2025, while the total market grew just 1.7%. Petrol registrations fell 40.5% and diesel 21.6%.

Autohaus reports that among the big German brands only Mercedes-Benz grew, by 8.5%, to a 10.3% share. BMW was flat at +0.1%. Volkswagen slipped 4%, Audi lost 8.4% and Opel fell 24.1%. BYD rose 54.3% to a 2.0% share, and MG grew 48.5%. Drweb.de adds that Tesla and Leapmotor registered almost four times as many cars as a year earlier.

The headline is real, but the subsidy looks like a big part of the engine

Let's be careful with the "Chinese brands are winning the mainstream" framing. A 2.0% share for BYD is not mainstream dominance. It is a fast climb from a low base. Golem notes that pure EVs make up less than half of BYD's and MG Roewe's registrations, which is a useful reality check on how electric these brands' German sales really are.

What drives the market, in our view, is largely policy. The federal subsidy has been taking applications since May 19, paying between €1,500 and €6,000 to households under an income limit of €80,000, and the EV share has risen month after month since then, from 25.0% to 37.0%, according to drweb.de. Private registrations rose 20.6% while commercial ones fell 8.2%. The KBA doesn't split those groups by drivetrain, but the pattern fits a household-driven, incentive-driven surge. Other factors count too: the car dealers' association ZDK points to persistently high fuel prices and a growing vehicle range. Still, the data show the market rewarding a lower effective price. They don't yet prove a lasting change in taste.

Price and choice are the new loyalty program

Who benefits when the money flows? Probably not the brands that rely on habit. The ZDK, quoted by Autohaus, itself points to a growing supply of vehicles as part of the boom. When a buyer gets €1,500 to €6,000 back and can compare a growing number of electric options, "my family always drove a VW" loses its force. We suspect challengers from China and the US benefit most from that dynamic, though the documentation doesn't compare prices.

The Mercedes result is the interesting counterexample. A premium brand at 10.3% share and growing may suggest that German makers can still win when the product is desirable. That is our reading: loyalty can be earned again, but it can't be assumed. Volkswagen, still the sales leader, shrinking by 4% while electrics expand is the uncomfortable half of that story.

The real test starts when the money runs out

The subsidy pot is limited: €3 billion, meant to cover about 800,000 vehicles through 2029. Drweb's own calculation says that at September's pace it would be empty by autumn 2027. The precedent is sobering. After the earlier Umweltbonus ended in December 2023, pure EV registrations fell 27.4% in 2024.

So here is our forecast, and it is only that: Chinese brands will probably keep gaining, because price pressure doesn't vanish with a subsidy. But the 37% figure could wobble when support fades, and the brands that hold on will likely be those with cheap, appealing cars rather than those leaning on incentives.

Our verdict: German carmakers shouldn't read October as a funeral, nor as a victory lap for Mercedes. They should read it as a deadline. The next year or so of subsidized demand is a window to win buyers with a price and product they'd choose without a check from the state. Buyers, meanwhile, should enjoy the leverage: it has rarely been better, and it may not last.